Debunking a crypto myth “You can’t time the markets”.
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Table of Contents:
00:00 - Introduction
03:13 - Start of chart analysis
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the difficulty is holding the right position when a pattern breaks. You maybe following a pattern and have just sold or bought when suddenly the pattern breaks to your disadvantage. Useful to know the current patterns though. Its all helpful as long as dont rely on it. Doesnt matter for long term holders though
You should have gone back further at least to may 2017 and got more data to compare cycles. Also you should be looking at the the fact that the last 7-8 months has formed a giant bull flag in the greater long term multi year chart which could cause the next run up to be a new ATH.
Thank you for your reply Mr. Comey. With all due respect, I took your 52 lecture course on Bitcoin 2 years ago. I have done extremely well thanks to your education and guidance. Being originally from Texas though, this video sounded a little "tall".
Chris, how can you assume that we entered a new cycle, since there is no data available after that. I don't see any clear indicator that the bear market is over. Did you just assume that the market bottomed out because it has been in the green for a few days, and that is must be a new cyclr beginning?
Bitcoin is part currency, part commodity, part security, part programmable value transfer, part social empowerment, part infant, part adult, part fuel, part [insert here] and keep going...
It's important to understand what it is fundamentally, even in its infancy, before you apply historic analysis.
I think it is worth meditating on, anyway, it's your call.
Haha excellent stuff Chris! Just a few comments: If you connect both of the last 2 cycle tops at 11,800 and 10,000 and project that forward, that's an interesting weekly reversal line. Not as strong as the 10k mark, but still good if we manage to cross that.
Secondly notice the declining volatility in each 80 day cycle. Before the final low is established you'll see the market drift sideways for a full cycle as was the case in April-June 2015. That is sadly the only case we have of a pre-bull 80 day cycle. Note how the market takes off right after that 54 day consolidation.
Interesting, I could imagine that the curve gets less dramatic and the lows and tops move closer. with less and less hype the volatility reduces but the market structure seems to hold at around 6k. so another cycle between 6k- 8k should be a realistic prediction.
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