Many are talking about the coming death cross for Bitcoin. I'll explain what it is, why it's Inferior & better alternatives to consider.
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You are missing the main point of "death cross". Significance is marking start of different market. In bull market 50/200 day moving averages act as support and those areas should be used to buy dips to add to winning position. In bear market long term moving averages are sell areas for those that might take short term trades of bigger washes. Then you point to early 2014 and how death cross was already 60% from peak. Well no shit, after big parabolic euphoria long term top averages will cross way lower. Point is that after death cross in 2014 you would have pretty much missed nothing long term until 2017. 3 years is a long time to waste. Now we have a death cross again and it'll likely be a few years again before we make any sustained run long term run. For long term investors its time to sell rallies and go away until bull market returns. 60% lower prices from extreme peaks doesn't mean good buy, prices are still up 2,000% just a bit over last year+.
BTW not saying its going to be a panic exodus. It'll be an orderly exit. Some people wait confirmation and sell bounce to MA. Some already sold. Many others will continue selling lower and lower as they hit their max pain. Death cross is simply confirmation that bears are now in full control long term with majority of bulls losing money.
There is a million different ways to trade using trendlines, volume, indicators, fundamentals, etc. Sure you could have used better SHORT term signals for higher exit but point is MANY LONG TERM investors buy solely on golden cross and sell on death cross. Last round they would have made like what, measly 2,000% after this "huge" pullback? Peanuts right? Now why anyone should stick around a dead market that will go much lower while volatility and liquidity disappear during consolidation phase? You can't short cryptos vs cash which only leaves you counter trend trading which sucks. Current prices are still amazingly great sells long term. Just very recently people couldn't believe it hit 5k on way up. Likely destination is where big breakout started happening 1,100-1,200. Another 80-90% drop is very likely. Easy money likely gone here for years. Sorry to tell you but maybe with your excellent TA expertise look into trading other markets. Whether stock market, forex, futures the principals are all the same. You'd be better off trading pork bellies as at least you can trade them both directions.
My point is, the death cross doesn't matter, even for long term investors. I booked profits well above here on my "long term holds" and a 50/200 crossover adds little in terms of confirming a bear market. I think we all know that we have been in one and there are much better tools to use for signals than this crossover. Also, even if BTC hibernates for 3 years, there is tones of great trading to be had.
EEXACTLY !! worrying about the death cross is as stupid as saying hitlers birthday was 29th may 1890 . 29+5+1890 = 1926 then 1+9+2+6 = 18 . which is the number of finance ministers germany has had since 1945. numerology is total bollox and worrying about a chart pattern that can happen sometimes is bollox too. great work sir.
My take on it is that MA's only matter from a psychological aspect, which means only relevant if many people are looking at them. Changing to different values that not many traders are looking at, makes them highly irrelevant i think.
Sure psychology does play a part but not so much because most people are looking at moving averages. Psychology part comes from emotions(fear/greed) of losing/making money. A moving average is sort of a line where buyers/sellers on average are break even. It breaks below it and most people that bought within that time frame start losing money which brings fear and people start selling as they start losing money. As prices trade above moving averages most are happy holding as they are making money and others buy fomo. Significance of death cross is that long term every time prices gets to 50/200 day moving averages it becomes big resistance as there will be lots of selling pressure as its point where many losers are able to get out near even. Its a cycle that keeps repeating itself until it gets broken. Last time it took 2-3 years.
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There is one single thing that matters in crypto: volume. All the rest is just bs. When the volume is down, even if the price grows, it is never a good sign. In my tradingview I use no indicators, only the volume
I'm not a fan of moving averages at all after this explanation. I'd rather use the RochRSI. Sometimes I do better just feeling out the price watching buy and sell orders go by and sorta feel what the longer term sentiment is for super short term trades anyway.
uhmm no. A day is a day regardless of # of hours something trades. By your logic does it mean that 24 hour markets like forex and futures are totally wrong and their moving averages should get adjusted too? Moving average is just a median price taken over certain time frame. Roughly break even point for all buyers/sellers within that time if you will. Above moving average bulls are winning, below bears. You want average for those x # of days. If you divide the days its not a daily average anymore.
Short term moving averages are more accurate for this space. There are some analysts that look at bare bones price action for crypto. No moving averages, no fibs, no clouds, etc. They just look at candle formation, tightening of lows and highs on different time frames, and then combine these with volume. Keep it as simple as possible with crypto I think
Good video, also u are missing the fact that crypto is 24/24, stock market close in the night and open first hour in the next day. If wallstreet start invest in crypto, they will be anihilated by crypto market. The wolfes becoming sheeps :) . More money they invest in crypto more power they give to whales to move market.
u r right. 1 day in stock is 3 days in cryto. Hence, a week in cryto is 21 days (puls 6 days in weekends) in stock in ratio. So 12--48EMA cryto is 50--200 EMA in stock. Everytime when node use 10--50 EMA do the TA, it is always clear to tell the market trend. He is wonderful. Experience is knowledge. He is great. Love all his videos and TA explaination.
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Death cross should not have any impact if our price is nowhere near those moving averages like it wasn't anywhere near back in 2014. No bears care to short because the MA's are so far above the price. In this case if price is rallying up towards our MA's in the low to mid $9k range then it does act as a nice shorting opportunity for the bears because they have the MAs to act for rejecting price and give justification to go short
You are correct, in bear market when price rallies to long term MAs its a great place to sell. You can't short cryptos vs cash and futures market highly iliquid. So its mostly just longs running for the door after getting near even or taking small gains.
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